I'm Back

I've let this lapse for far too long, but now I will try to get myself back on track. That may be tough, since I have a busy couple of days coming up, and there's been a lot going on, but I'm going to try.

The Canadian federal election is clearly going to be the top story. The media has itself worked up into a lather about how the Conservatives are knocking on the door of majority government, the Liberals are in meltdown, the NDP is pushing for official opposition and the Greens are the best thing since sliced bread and a going to make a serious breakthrough. Unsurprisingly, given the history of media lather, none of that is true.

To start off with, lets look at the polling numbers. Routinely, for the last couple federal elections, Nanos polling (formerly known as SES) has been the most accurate polling company, coming very close to the final result. So I am going to use their numbers as the guide for my commentary on polls through the election. Unless, of course, I see a blatantly ridiculous poll like the one from Segma Research last week that showed the CPC at 43%. That was a howler.

Nanos currently has the following numbers:
CPC: 38%
LPC: 31%
NDP: 17%
BQ: 7%
GPC: 7%
Margin of error: +/- 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Looking at those numbers, it means that all of the change since the last election (CPC +2%, LPC +1%, NDP -1%, BQ -3%, GPC +2%, after rounding) is within the margin of error. We could very well come back with the exact same result as the last election. All of the people running around screaming about any number of disasters or miracles need to have their heads checked. Much as I would like to believe the NDP is about to have it's breakthrough to be the official opposition, it isn't looking like it is going to happen this time. The same way, the CPC will not form a majority government. 38% is only in the most positive of eventualities enough for a bare majority. Chretien squeaked one out with 38% in 1997, but there was no opposition party polling anywhere near 30% at the time and Liberal support wasn't concentrated in a relatively small province the same way CPC support is concentrated in Alberta. Stephen Harper can only win every seat in Alberta once. The Greens will also not elect a single MP. Potato Head Pete will beat eMay in Central Nova, and Blair Wilson will suffer an embarassing beat-down in West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky Country.

If the Conservatives come back with an increased minority (I repeat, it won't be a majority), it will likely be because of seat gains in rural Quebec, and possibly in BC. They will lose seats in Atlantic Canada, possibly being wiped out in NL and down to one seat in NS (Pete, beating eMay). The CPC may also lose Tobique-Mactaquac, putting them down five seats. It think, however, that the most likely outcome is probably the CPC coming out of this election up by 2-5 seats, with the NDP gaining 3-6, and the losses coming from the LPC, BQ and Greens (their one pathetic floor crossing seat).

The Cons have not been running the same kind of gaffe-free campaign they did last time, that much is already clear. From the puffin fiasco to the ill-advised swipe at the father of a dead soldier, however, the gaffes have come from the back room, not candidates. That all changed today. Today the Globe and Mail is reporting that Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz was making fun of the deaths from Listeriosis poisoning (referring to "death by 1000 cold cuts") and, when he heard that one of the fatalities was from Prince Edward Island, he said that he hoped it was Wayne Easter, the Liberal Agriculture critic. Oops.

That kind of gaffe is exactly what can sink the not-so-good ship Conservative. Last time around, a significant contribution to the fall of the Liberals was Scott Reid's "beer and popcorn" quip. This comment has the capacity to do the same thing. Conservatives are shown to be making light of the deaths of Canadians on their watch, from a product that is supposed to be regulated by the government they were running. This shows an appalling coldness of heart, as well as a sadistic streak, wishing death on Mr. Easter and hideous sorrow on his family.

This comment also shows that the CPC has not changed since it was the reform party. It continues to be crass, classless and cruel. Mean spirited cuts to the arts, ideologically motivated cuts to funding for Status of Women Canada (not to mention removing the word "equality" from their mandate), introducing copyright legislation more draconian that the US's Digital Millennium Copyright Act, electoral fraud through the in-and-out scheme, attempting to roll back the sexual morality clock to the 1950s by raising the age of consent (and shame on the other parties for going along with it) and by trying to repeal the Civil Marriage Act that allowed same-sex marriage. And let's not even get into their colossal failure on the climate chaos file.

Now, the Liberals are not a lot better, since they stood aside and let these paleo-con measures pass unimpeded, ranting and raving about how they opposed the bill, but generating all light and no heat, since when the time came only a rump of Liberals showed up to cast votes against the bills. The Liberals are also trying to out tax cut the Conservatives, pledging more and deeper tax cuts for corporations than even the Conservatives. That is NUTS. Canada already has a lower corporate tax rate that the United States, and corporate income tax rates are substantially lower than personal income tax rates. Never mind the Green Shift that works nicely for the upper crust puppet masters of the Liberal party, while laying the burden of the post-carbon transition on the backs of the poorest in society. But enough about the Liberals for now, they are mostly doing enought to embarass themselves that I don't need to help them along.

The NDP is not perfect. It is too pragmatic in its pursuit of power, and it has drifted too far from its principles and its base. But I do like a lot of the policy that the party has proposed this time around. It is good, on point, and addresses many important issues, including childcare, reform of the banking sector and climate chaos. I was ashamed to be a member of the party when all but Bill Siksay voted in favour of the omnibus crime bill that not only overrode just about every social worker and sociologist in the country on the age of consent, but also neglected yet another opportunity to end the bigoted differential age of consent for anal and vaginal intercourse. But I am still a supporter of this party. I can't say I will be forever, but for now I am. My vote will be going to Meagan Leslie, the NDP candidate here in Halifax, and I think she makes a good candidate.

The Greens are an interesting case. I think the most interesting role they have left to play in this campaign will be whether or not eMay endorses Dion and the Liberals at the end. She may well, since he has endorsed a number of Liberals, even those running against Greens. I will go on the record saying that eMay should not have been included in the debates. Her party has only got one floor crossing seat in Parliament. Every previous party has had to have at least one MP elected under their banner (and don't mention Gilles Duceppe, everyone knew he was running for the BQ but they just weren't a formal party at the time he was elected) to get into the debate. Yet eMay managed to shame the country into giving her a voice despite her deal with Dion which effectively makes her a second Liberal in the debate. We should all watch closely to see if they are signalling each other.

Any how, that is enough for now. As I said, I will try to keep this blog updated, but we shall see.

Days Remaining in Bush Presidency: 124