The Election Results

So, Canada has held it's 40th general election. The results are in, and the Conservatives have won another minority government, going from 124 in 2006 to 143. The NDP was the only other party to gain seats, going from 29 in 2006 to 37. The Liberals shed seats, going from 103 in 2006 to 77 and the BQ lost one seat, going from 51 in 2006 to 50.

This election was a Pyrrhic victory for Harper and his paleo-cons, and frankly it was for the NDP too (though less so). Harper was handed his golden moment to win a majority by the Liberals electing someone as feckless as Stephane Dion as leader, and by Dion's catastrophic campaign. Despite being handed a majority on a silver platter, Harper bungled and was force to accept another, though stronger, minority. Harper doesn't want a minority, even if for a year or so he will be able to govern as if he had a majority, thanks to the fratricidal mania that is already possessing the Liberal Party of Canada. I predict now that Harper will be gone within three years. And then the tables will be turned, with the Conservatives desperate to avoid an election, and the Liberals champing at the bit.

As I said, for the NDP this result is also something of a Pyrrhic victory. The NDP broke the bank, and and went flat out, and only managed to gain 0.8% of the vote and eight seats. There were some important accomplishments, such as for the first time ever winning a seat in Quebec in a general election, and for only the second time ever winning a seat in Newfoundland and Labrador and in Alberta. The NDP lost one particularly strong incumbant last night when Peggy Nash was defeated in Parkdale-High Park by skeezball Gerrard Kennedy. He is, as I have memorably heard it put, a hair cut and an empty suit, and he defeated one of the hardest working and best New Democrat incumbents. Peggy will be missed, and I look forward to the day when Kennedy gets the royal heave from the people of Parkdale-High Park. But the amount of money spent by the NDP put the party into debt, and that is a hole it will take a while to climb out of, especially since in absolute terms the NDP got fewer votes than last time out. That means less money from Elections Canada, and a deeper debt hole. Hopefully the NDP can stay positive and look forward.

Dion, however, is the big loser out of last night. His party had it's worst ever showing in terms of percentage of the popular vote, falling to 26%, 2% below the previous low water mark set by the Turner Liberals in 1984. He lost twenty-six seats in the House, and is finished as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. Dion is only the second leader of the Liberals never to sit as Prime Minister (Edward Blake was the leader of the Liberals from 1880-1887). Dion will either resign within weeks, or be forced out in a previously scheduled leadership review in early 2009. If he goes the first way, the Liberal Party can be healed of this trauma, and get on with getting back to power. If Dion goes the second way, it may finish the Liberals for good and all. The Liberals are completely out of money, their donor base is depleted and exhausted, their base is evaporating, and has essentially retreated to western Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal and Atlantic Canada. The extra expense of a convention simply to get rid of Dion, followed by another convention to elect his successor could break the Liberals.

Oh, and the Greens. Oh the Greens. It warmed my heart to see Elizabeth May (eMay) go down hard. That bloviating hypocritical liar got thumped by Peter Mackay, and watched her one MP (and her party's claim to legitimacy) get flushed down the toilet in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country. Hilariously (in a dark way), it seems like eMay's antics were what took down the Liberals. Essentially all of the Greens' gain in the polls from 4.5% to 6.8% came from the Liberal vote. Hopefully we won't need to hear whining about eMay being in the leader's debate next time. They don't any longer meet the bar of one MP (even if obtained by nefarious means) and weren't truely close to winning anywhere. Even in Central Nova eMay fell thousands of votes short. Also hilarious, she has vowed to run in Central Nova again. She won't get another assist from the Liberals like she got this time. The next leader of the LPC won't be so enamoured of her, after her party stripped 2% of the vote off them.

Overall, I'm not happy with the result, but I'm not despondent either. The fact that the NDP came close to running the table in Northern Ontario, falling short in Kenora by about 2000 votes, and being out of contention in Nipising-Timiskaming, is good. The taking of Edmonton-Strathcona is fantastic, and watching Jack Harris absolutely crush his opponents in St. John's East was gratifying. But we have another Conservative government. We are going to likely be treated to more of the bully-boy tactics that characterized the last Parliament. We are going to have to take a couple more years of nasty, mean-spirited and ideological cuts. We'll probably have to organize to defeat another attempt to introduce draconian copyright legislation, attempts to eliminate a woman's right to choose, another attempt to roll back same-sex marriage and goodness knows what else. We will probably also see pandering to Quebec, such as Stephen Harper ending the federal spending power in Quebec. Once again, we will have to count on the unappointed, elitist, Senate to put the kibosh on the excesses of the government (that one really irks me).

Much remains to be seen. I hope that Harper summons Parliament as soon as possible, but somehow I don't see it happening. Harper doesn't want to face criticism, and the question period is just to hard for his government. They still don't understand how to behave like a government, rather than a group of hooligans who managed to take over the premises.

It's going to be an interesting couple of years.

Days Remaining in Bush Presidency: 96